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| Feb 27, 2009 9:50 am |
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re: A Crash Course in Economics |
John Stephen Veitch
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Chris Martenson said he had three beliefs:
1. The next 20 years will be quite different.
2. A huge shift in economic reality was likely.
3. We do have the ability to understand the change and adapt to it.
The depression of 2009 is already evident in the USA. A basic re-evaluation of VALUE is occurring. Many things are being given a "stress test" not just banks. EVERYTHING is being stress tested, including you and your own ideas. Including me and my own ideas.
All the things you own, you purchased imagining the world was in a state that was reliable and stable. Your investment in housing, cars, tools, education, business investments, savings, children, hobbies, civic activities, whatever you CHOSE to do says a lot about who you are, and what you think the world is like.
Perhaps, in the future the world will be quite different. Although at the moment the US$ is holding it's value, I anticipate it's going to disconnect from other currencies and go into deep decline at some stage. That will in one blow destroy America's wealth compared with the rest of the world, but it will also make it possible to grow jobs in the USA again. Industry will become viable again. People who make things will have work.
In this new world, "stuff" from China will be more expensive. Oil will cost a lot more. Cars will be smaller, many of them electric. Public transport will become a national priority. Many people will begin for the first time to live without a car.
Chinese factories will open branches in the USA. Many Americans will find it more than useful to learn Mandarin. Much of the commercial property in the USA will have Chinese owners. Many more Chinese will live in the USA, perhaps in a house on your street.
There will be TEN painful years, but you'll get through it, and after that you'll really be able to see a new dawn for American society. Leaner, more realistic, more adaptable, more skilled, more aware of the whole world, and less inclined to live in a "bubble called America".
I think the Republican Party will be widely understood to be wildly out of touch and strongly blamed for the depression. I don't think there is any political recovery possible for them. It might get very nasty on the street, riots and city burnings before the end of 2010. The financial losses will be huge, but it will allow rebuilding, and create jobs and make a new start possible.
Even the Democrats will struggle to survive. If they get through, they will do so by transforming themselves, the old Democratic party is of necessity also dead. Quite different policies and attitudes will be required to cope with the Depression. Change will be demanded. Those able to make the change will survive, those who can't understand and who resist will be swept away. Every thing will be "stress tested" and for the nation's politicians those tests will be the most severe. New challenges in an unstable environment every day. One will depend on one's VALUES to survive. Difficult choices will have to be made in uncharted territory. It will take great leadership to succeed.
Those are some of the things I see coming.
Here in New Zealand we've already made some of the changes needed. We've been in savings mode for 15 years, we're not saddled with debt. We've been getting much greener in our thinking and our politics for at least 20 years. Many of the things that now have priority, energy efficient housing, good public transport, quality free public health care, free education, switch to natural means of energy production are projects already started. Sometimes several years advanced. We've learned how to be adaptable. Nobody in NZ expects a government subsidy for business purposes. Yes, we're going to feel the pain of unemployment too, and we are also going to face "stress testing", but I think we're well down the right track, and most of what we are doing will survive intact.
John Stephen Veitch
Open Future Limited - http://www.openfuture.biz/
Innovation Network - http://veech-network.ryze.com/
Building an Open Future - http://openfuture-network.ryze.com/Private Reply to John Stephen Veitch (new win) |
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