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Web of Finance
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| Mar 09, 2004 2:09 am |
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re: Reply to Rakesh - Market Direction |
Steven Poser
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Stocks have been moving mostly sideways to lower (depending on what part of the market you look at) for a bit of time now, as Ms. Hollands noted. Several areas made new s-t lows on Monday. I have a letter that recommended sales for SMH, the semi-conductor HOLDR at $43.70. We are still short and looking for $38.40 on that, but barring a strong move below there, our view is that this is still just a correction. The S&P can slip to 1122 or so. IF the markets get much lower than that level, we might very well be in a deeper correction of 10-15% off the highs. Our preferred view is for that correction to start from a new high, and not now. Long-term is much more bearish, but I do not see major problems until Q3 or Q4. But, deflation will be coming back around again in the press real soon. Not saying we will get it, just that talk of it will return.
Steven W. Poser
> Melanie Hollands wrote:
> Rakesh,
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>Your interpretation of my market note below is not correct.
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>My note refers to the process of correction that began in mit-to-late January, 2004: 1) on January 13 for the SOX (January 13 being the date that Index peaked), and 2) on Janaury 26 for the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ (January 26 being the date those Indexes peaked).
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>I don't belive that tech is "about to tank" and did not write that.
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>However, I did write that I believe this correction is not over.
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>I belive that the correction will continue with the market moving sidewaye with a downward bias for another month or more (possibly, stress POSSIBLY, as long as anotehr four months but there are a number of factors that could influence how much longer the market corrects.) I will take it as it comes; but for now I don't believe that the correction, which has been underway for 6 weeks or more now, is over. That said, today was a weak day across the board and if this continues, and we get sufficiently oversold, then we should bounce a bit at some point.
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>I hope this clarifies my views.
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>Cheers
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>Melanie 
Private Reply to Steven Poser (new win) |
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