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Apr 24, 2004 9:53 pm re: re: VXO and P/C Ratio suggest a rally could be close #
Steven Poser
Melanie, I largely agree with you, although I can make an argument for a new high, it is a difficult one. To be honest, we are still in a nine-month long mega range in the bond market and we might be stuck in a 6-month or longer range in stocks as well...

> Melanie Hollands wrote:
> Steve,
>
>You totally got the 1126 level right!
>
>Actually, the numbers are fascinating on this. During the 2000-2002 bear, if you bought the market only when it was 105% of the 50 DMA and sold when it dropped back below, you were in the mkt 256 days and had a positive return
>of 6.28%. However, if you waited for 110% of the 50 DMA then you were in for 186 days and made 12.79%.
>
>From this 1124 level, I think we rally up to around 1140 (maybe 1150) and then it putters out. I doubt that we break 1150. A move above there would break the downtrend line - a very important battle. As for what happens from 1140, it depends how it behaves at that level. I think it bounces off and we sell off again.
>
>Cheers
>
>Melanie

Private Reply to Steven Poser (new win)





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